Every trading bot can show you the trades it took. This one re-prices the trades it refused, and publishes whether refusing was right — including when it wasn't.
loading…
Read live from the Alpaca paper account on every cycle.
Each trade the risk gate vetoed, re-priced at current marks. Scored symmetrically: a refusal that avoided a loss counts, and so does one that missed a profit.
| Refused | Spread | Credit | Would be | Verdict | Because |
|---|
| Gate | Refusals | Priced | Correct | Costly | Net of refusing | Hit rate |
|---|
A naive agent — the same model, the same live chain, the same spreads — with the regime filter, challenger, risk officer, floor and position limit removed. It never submits. Its would-be trades are re-priced by the same scorer that grades our refusals.
| When | Spread | Would size | Credit | Marked now | Its reasoning |
|---|
The deterministic layers run across four index ETFs at 1 and 7 days to expiry. Expected value at horizon-matched realised volatility and at the option's own implied.
| Symbol | DTE | Regime | Short | δ | Credit | PoP | E @ realised | E @ implied | Verdict |
|---|
Before every trade the analyst pre-registers one concrete condition under which it is wrong. Each is parsed into a level and checked against every daily close since. A level at or beyond the short strike can only fire after the loss is locked in — that is a description, not a warning.
| When | Decision | Condition | Level vs short strike | Status |
|---|
Both directions: each order the broker holds must match the ledger record that submitted it, and each live submission in the ledger must exist at the broker. From the final session the cycle's ledger id is the order's client id.
What the portfolio would be worth under each candidate minimum credit-to-width.
Append-only. Refusals are shown, not hidden.
Every multi-leg order sent to Alpaca.
| Submitted | Status | Qty | Limit | Filled | Legs |
|---|